Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1457

   Mesoscale Discussion 1457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far northern Texas...western
   Oklahoma...into far southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261911Z - 262115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms with potential for strong to severe wind possible
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across far western
   Oklahoma this afternoon where daytime heating has allowed MLCIN to
   erode. Temperatures are now in the mid 80s to mid 90s with dew
   points in the upper 60s to 70s. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg is
   noted in surface objective analysis. Though the background flow is
   generally weak, steep lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and moist
   profiles will support a few strong storms capable of strong to
   severe winds through the afternoon. Given the lack of shear for a
   more widespread and organized threat, a watch is unlikely to be
   needed.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34530051 35969985 37069920 37199805 37139710 36859680
               36529672 36189673 35259736 34209807 34069885 34260004
               34530051 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH