Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1455

   Mesoscale Discussion 1455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...northern
   Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...DC...eastern West
   Virginia...southern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261754Z - 262000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging winds possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate across
   portions of the Appalachians. This activity is expected to continue
   to expand in coverage through the afternoon/evening. The environment
   to the east is hot and unstable (with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg)
   and temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s. Despite the weak flow
   aloft and weak shear, steep low-level lapse rates (around 7.5-8
   C/km) and moist profiles will support potential for wet downbursts
   and damaging outflow winds. This area will be monitored for watch
   potential through the afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38957561 37447702 37567833 37957905 38227927 38847910
               39967829 40917720 41327647 41147576 40397519 39057557
               38957561 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN