Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1453

   Mesoscale Discussion 1453
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...southern Appalachians into northern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261648Z - 261845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some
   instances of severe hail possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this morning across
   portions of eastern Tennessee and western South Carolina, with
   occasional severe pulses. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s
   to 90s across the Carolinas into Georgia and eastern Tennessee, with
   dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. Continued heating under sunny
   skies (outside of the areas with convection) should yield further
   destabilization and MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg by the afternoon.
   Morning 12z sounding analysis indicates cool mid-levels, with modest
   mid-level lapse rates. Though flow aloft is weak, moderate
   instability and steepening low-level lapse  with heating will allow
   for potential for wet downbursts and damaging outflow winds. A few
   isolated instances of severe hail will also be possible, owing to
   steep lapse rates. This area will be monitored for watch potential
   through the afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   BMX...

   LAT...LON   33658324 33348429 33308482 33518519 33818538 34228526
               34838478 36218303 36878212 37368145 37758054 38077982
               38177941 38177877 38017842 37827816 37577801 37377792
               37037815 36757885 36417954 36178008 36028034 35498090
               34778186 34208257 33658324 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN