Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1452

   Mesoscale Discussion 1452
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern IA...southeast
   MN...southern/central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 261629Z - 261830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of a few tornadoes and
   isolated to scattered damaging winds may develop this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV is moving out of the Missouri Valley toward
   southern MN, immediately in advance of a larger-scale
   mid/upper-level trough moving across the northern Plains. A warm
   front is draped from northern IA into southern WI. This front will
   move northward into this afternoon, as a surface wave moves along
   the front near the MN/IA border. Rich low-level moisture is in place
   near and south of the warm front. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but
   diurnal heating of the very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE
   increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range along and south of the
   front. 

   Visible satellite indicates some clearing north of the warm front
   from northeast IA into far southeast MN and southwest WI. This will
   allow moderate buoyancy to develop within a region where surface
   winds are backed and effective SRH is locally enhanced. As the MCV
   and surface wave move across the region, supercell development will
   be possible near/north of the warm front and near the surface low,
   with relatively enlarged low-level hodographs supporting a tornado
   threat. Eventually, a broken line of storms may eventually develop
   along a trailing cold front, which could also pose a threat of
   locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. 

   Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon in order to address
   these threats.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42729316 42529386 42279476 43019445 43859394 44319263
               44539145 44549027 44208887 43588845 43078852 42918895
               42929015 42899223 42729316 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH