Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1442

   Mesoscale Discussion 1442
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Minnesota...extreme northeast
   Iowa...and far southwestern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 461...

   Valid 252200Z - 252330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 461 continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado and severe gust risk will continue with ongoing
   storms. The best chance for tornadoes will exist with low-topped
   supercells traversing a diffuse baroclinic boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped supercells have developed and are
   traversing a diffuse west-to-east baroclinic boundary, where strong
   low-level shear is in place. The most recent ARX VAD shows a
   sizeable, curved hodograph and nearly 200 m2/s2 in the surface-500 m
   layer. As such, tornadoes and severe gusts remain a concern with the
   stronger storms, particularly with any low-topped supercells that
   continue to traverse the boundary, where maximum ingestion of
   streamwise vorticity may be realized.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43629401 43869413 44259371 44669310 44829285 44669136
               44149045 43479061 43159137 43139258 43209308 43629401 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH