Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1438

   Mesoscale Discussion 1438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...FL Panhandle into south GA and far southeast AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251958Z - 252200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible through late
   afternoon, with a continued threat of damaging wind and isolated
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing this afternoon
   across the FL Panhandle into southwest GA, with additional cumulus
   development noted northeast of the ongoing convection. Relatively
   steep lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft are supporting strong
   to extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in the 3000-4000 J/kg
   range. Deep-layer flow is rather weak, though modest midlevel
   northeasterlies on the periphery of an upper ridge will support
   20-25 kt of effective shear through the afternoon, which may support
   modest storm organization given the very favorable instability. 

   Potential will continue this afternoon for southwestward moving
   clusters capable of damaging downburst/outflow winds and isolated
   hail. There is some potential for loosely organized outflow-driven
   clusters to develop, which could produce more concentrated areas of
   wind damage, though this scenario remains somewhat uncertain. 

   Uncertainty regarding severe coverage renders the need for
   short-term watch issuance uncertain, but trends will be monitored
   for an uptick in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29878720 30428793 30908775 31128592 32148375 32428340
               32468255 32198184 31728186 30668233 29908284 29638352
               29548436 29498563 29878720 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN