Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1434

   Mesoscale Discussion 1434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern WV into parts of MD...VA...DC...and far
   south-central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251722Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storm development is underway early
   this afternoon from the eastern WV Panhandle into northern VA/MD.
   Midlevel lapse rates are notably weaker compared to areas farther
   south. However, strong heating of a richly moist airmass has allowed
   MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Storm organization
   will be limited by weak deep-layer flow/shear, though weak
   unidirectional west-northwesterly flow may allow for small
   southeastward-moving clusters if sufficient outflow consolidation
   can occur. Even in the absence of any organized clustering, very
   steep low-level lapse rates will result in potential for localized
   damaging downburst/outflow winds through the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39457904 40017707 39807619 39127615 38517617 37807636
               36787907 37997935 38737942 39097946 39457904 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN