Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1431

   Mesoscale Discussion 1431
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242343Z - 250145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this evening. Hail, wind,
   and perhaps a brief tornado are the main threats. Storm coverage
   should be too sparse to warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a very weak disturbance may
   be ejecting northeast across eastern ID/northwestern WY. Some
   flattening of the height field is expected across northern WY over
   the next few hours. Southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the
   Plains has forced moisture deep into central WY, and up against the
   Big Horn Mountains. While surface-based parcels are likely capped
   east of the higher terrain, one lone supercell has developed over
   Natrona County, while deepening cu field is noted over eastern
   Fremont County. Severe hail is likely noted with the Natrona storm,
   and is possible with any supercells this evening. There is some
   concern the southern influence of the aforementioned short wave may
   encourage another storm or two to form along the southern portions
   of the Big Horns over the next few hours. If so, this activity would
   spread into portions of northeast WY where shear profiles favor
   supercells, but the boundary layer is a bit cooler. At this time it
   appears activity may prove too sparse to warrant a watch.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 06/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43240705 44220591 43310502 42750628 43240705 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN