Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1429

   Mesoscale Discussion 1429
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

   Areas affected...portions of extreme northwest Pennsylvania into
   extreme western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242049Z - 242315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts cannot be ruled out over the
   next several hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have initiated and intensified off
   of surface boundaries and confluence zones over the past couple of
   hours. Deep-layer flow and shear, as well as buoyancy, are modest at
   best across the region (e.g. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid less than 20 kts
   of effective bulk shear). As such, a couple of brief downbursts may
   cause sparse tree damage in the near-term. Relatively more robust
   storms are currently tracking across extreme southeast Ontario.
   These storms may cross Lake Erie a few hours for now, perhaps with a
   slightly greater damaging gust threat. Nonetheless, the severe
   threat should remain localized, precluding the need for a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41598064 41807996 42337916 42647894 42897892 43097892
               43327874 43327847 43027842 42337838 41957850 41657862
               41447895 41377948 41267988 41238016 41228040 41598064 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH