Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1425

   Mesoscale Discussion 1425
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northwest Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240131Z - 240300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster emanating from eastern Quebec may
   pose a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado this evening.
   Confidence in a persistent severe threat is not high.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0125 UTC, MRMS and EC radar imagery showed a
   small bowing cluster of thunderstorms across the St Lawrence River
   Valley in eastern QC. Largely paralleling a stationary frontal zone,
   these storms have remained fairly organized this evening amidst
   moderate buoyancy and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Additional
   moistening of the boundary layer is ongoing along and south of the
   frontal zone from low-level warm advection across western ME.
   Forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh suggests surface dew
   points increasing to near or above 70 F, which may temporarily
   slowly nocturnal stabilization. In the presence of enlarging,
   clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a few damaging gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this thunderstorm cluster.

   Storms should cross the international border in the next 1-2 hours.
   Confidence in a sustained severe threat is low as nocturnal
   stabilization will gradually diminish the remaining instability.
   Still, deep veering wind profiles and moderate shear could support
   some severe threat for a few hours tonight. Convective trends will
   continue to be monitored, though a WW currently appears unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   47256969 47366935 47176894 46526856 46116878 45666917
               45556938 45617036 45967068 47256969 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN