Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1423

   Mesoscale Discussion 1423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska into far northwest Missouri
   and southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456...

   Valid 232323Z - 240130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of higher severe wind potential may
   be emerging across far northwest Missouri and central Iowa ahead of
   two organizing clusters.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection continues to erupt along
   and ahead of a convectively augmented cold front from far southeast
   NE into far northwest MO and southern/central IA. Most of this
   activity has remained fairly transient, but has a history of
   producing small swaths of severe winds (including a 62 mph gust at
   KDSM). To the south and east of the Des Moines, IA area, convection
   has begun to consolidate along the cold front with echo tops
   occasionally reaching up to 50 kft at times. Further intensification
   appears likely over the next hour or so as this band approaches a
   regional MLCAPE maximum near 3500 J/kg. Additional cold pool
   amalgamation coupled with intensifying convection should promote a
   relative increase in severe wind potential. 

   Further southwest across the NE/IA/MO tri-state area, a secondary
   band of convection has begun to slowly organize along a consolidated
   outflow boundary based on regional velocity imagery. Additionally,
   GOES IR imagery show steady cloud top cooling indicative of
   intensification, and cold pool temperature deficits are approaching
   20 F, suggesting a deep cold pool is beginning to develop. These
   trends suggest that a strong to severe line may emerge over the next
   hour or so downstream along the MO/IA border.

   ..Moore.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40189628 40629555 42259246 42419198 42399143 42309107
               42089100 41729109 41419129 41129198 40079419 39929459
               39889498 39829606 39879632 40039643 40189628 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN