Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1417

   Mesoscale Discussion 1417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into far southeast
   Nebraska and southwestern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231934Z - 232200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential may occur if more robust
   thunderstorm development can take place along the cold front. Strong
   to potentially severe wind gusts would be the main hazard.
   Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed across eastern NE
   in a post-cold-frontal regime. Within the last hour, convection has
   tried to deepen along the KS/NE border, closer to the cold front,
   and where greater buoyancy resides. Deep-layer shear is modest at
   best (e.g. 30 kts), and is lagging the cold front. While vertical
   wind shear is limited, 7-8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates atop 70+
   F surface dewpoints is contributing to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in a weakly
   capped environment. While storms should be mainly pulse-cellular or
   multicellular, any cold-pool mergers that occur with the more
   intense storms may support strong to severe gusts. Convective trends
   are being monitored for further increases in coverage or intensity
   that would warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39449947 41119694 41759606 42459456 42649365 42579272
               42389244 41829271 40969342 40439394 39979481 38929680
               38549805 38579874 38649923 38729943 39449947 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN