Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1415

   Mesoscale Discussion 1415
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...northeast MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230723Z - 230900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and
   marginal hail over the next few hours across parts of northeast
   Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated storms has become somewhat better
   organized recently as the clusters move northeast along an
   instability gradient and within moderate vertical shear on the
   western periphery of a low-level jet. Regional 00z RAOBs and latest
   SPC Mesoanalysis indicated steep lapse rates are present over the
   region downstream from the ongoing cluster. Sporadic strong gusts
   and isolated marginal hail may occur with this activity. However,
   overall severe potential is expected to remain limited/transient and
   a watch is not currently expected, though trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46679459 48299322 48419218 47949112 46539188 45849297
               45619396 45589453 45949484 46679459 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN