Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1411

   Mesoscale Discussion 1411
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...453...

   Valid 230055Z - 230300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452, 453
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms continue to affect parts of northern NE and
   southeast SD.  Large hail and damaging winds will remain a concern
   for a few more hours.

   DISCUSSION...A large cluster of severe thunderstorms, including
   multiple supercell structures, is affecting areas from Blaine to
   Holt Counties NE.  The lead storm just east of O'Neill has remain
   anchored to the cold front and is the most intense.  It remains
   capable of very large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds.
   The storms farther southwest appear to be slightly elevated and
   slightly lessened intensity.  

   Another area of thunderstorms is developing farther north, near
   Winner SD.  These storms are strongly elevated, but in a region of
   sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for some concern for hail in the
   strongest cells.

   Finally, a long-lived supercell storm has tracked across the NE
   Panhandle and is now in southern Sheridan County.  This cell is 
   moving into a progressively more elevated unstable layer, but has
   developed sufficient organization that it could persist for 2-3 more
   hours and pose a continued risk of hail across north-central NE.

   ..Hart.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42770120 43689924 43829766 43359712 42569789 41409987
               41450075 41750169 42170214 42770120 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN