SPC MD 1410

MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453… FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA…SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...

Valid 222252Z - 230045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
continues.

SUMMARY...Coverage of severe storms will increase this evening over
central NE and southeast SD.  Very large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado are possible.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of intensifying
thunderstorms has congealed into a significant supercell over Blaine
County NE.  This storm is immediately along a slow moving surface
cold front, with ambient wind fields potentially allowing the storm
to remain in the frontal zone for the next couple of hours.  If this
were to occur, a corridor of significant severe risk (very large
hail and wind gusts exceeding 65 knots) could occur across parts of
Loup/Rock/Holt counties.  Enhanced low-level convergence and shear
along the front could also result in a brief tornado or two,
although high LCL heights and rather weak shear in the warm sector
are limiting factors.

Farther south, visible satellite shows a few tcu attempts along the
dryline over south-central NE.  If these storms can become
established, high-based supercell structures would be favored
capable of damaging winds and large hail.

..Hart.. 06/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40690070 42689938 43219796 42809737 41629904 40310039
            40690070 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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2025-06-23 00:30:06