Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1403

   Mesoscale Discussion 1403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...the NE Panhandle and far southeast WY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 221850Z - 222045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and strong gusts will be possible as a few
   supercells likely develop across the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development is underway along and
   west of a quasi-stationary front arcing across far southeast WY. CYS
   VWP data has sampled substantial speed shear above the lowest km
   amid a nearly unidirectional southwesterly profile. This will
   support potential for multiple supercells this afternoon within the
   downstream post-frontal regime across the NE Panhandle. Most of this
   area should remain along the western periphery of weak surface-based
   buoyancy where surface dew points can hold in the mid to upper 50s
   to the north of the west/east-oriented instability axis along the
   I-80 corridor. Continued negative low-level theta-e advection from
   the north-northwest will be a limiting factor to the northern extent
   of the severe threat and should result in a confined corridor of
   realized severe. With robust mid-level UH signals across the 12Z
   HREF and recent HRRR/RRFS guidance, the expectation is that a few
   supercells will be capable of large hail and locally strong gusts.

   ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43140192 42670146 42070173 41430263 41070414 41370496
               41730499 42550429 43170274 43140192 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN