Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1402

   Mesoscale Discussion 1402
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...northwest MN and northeast ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

   Valid 221610Z - 221715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Marginal and isolated severe wind/hail threats appear to
   be diminishing into early afternoon across northwest Minnesota and
   northeast North Dakota. Sustained storm development farther south
   appears unlikely until late afternoon or later.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has largely consolidated to one
   sustained strong storm across far northwest MN, producing a recent
   measured gust of 55 mph. This will pose a near-term threat until it
   shifts across the international border. Weak and increasingly
   elevated convection persists to its west across northeast ND. It is
   plausible that a cell or two could intensify and produce marginally
   severe hail before shifting into southeast MB. Sustained
   surface-based storm development appears unlikely through at least
   early afternoon along the southeast ND portion of the front, owing
   to the pronounced EML across the warm-moist sector.

   ..Grams.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   49509488 49219449 48839495 48369605 47999691 47909857
               48189905 48759877 49109764 49479576 49509488 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN