Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1401

   Mesoscale Discussion 1401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...south-central ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221417Z - 221545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A lone elevated supercell along the North Dakota-South
   Dakota border area might persist through midday, offering primarily
   a large hail threat across south-central North Dakota. Uncertainty
   with longevity of a single storm renders low confidence in
   severe-thunderstorm watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A compact elevated supercell has recently shown
   right-mover tendency along the ND/SD border area, along with a
   report of golf-ball size hail. While this storm is well to the
   northwest of the surface front that extends from PIR to just north
   of ABR, adequate elevated buoyancy/shear exists to maintain
   supercell structure. The rightward-movement may aid in longer-term
   sustainability as it tracks farther east-northeast across the CAPE
   gradient towards the larger buoyancy plume over eastern ND. 00Z HREF
   had some UH signal for a single longer-track storm, albeit tracking
   more northeast than east-northeast.

   ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46220183 46610142 46930055 47149946 47159872 46639858
               46419894 46139962 45920053 45840167 46220183 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN