Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1400

   Mesoscale Discussion 1400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0724 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern ND...northeast SD...western MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221224Z - 221400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection is ongoing this morning from
   east-central ND into northeast SD. This convection is being aided by
   a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving quickly
   northeastward toward northern MN. Midlevel lapse rates are quite
   steep (as observed on the 12Z MPX sounding), and recent objective
   mesoanalyses depict a corridor of very strong MUCAPE (3000-4000
   J/kg) from eastern ND into northwest MN, near and north of a surface
   boundary that will move north as a warm front with time today.
   Ongoing convection could intensify as it moves into this corridor.
   Deep-layer shear is also stronger with northern extent, and could
   help to increase storm organization with time this morning.

   Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany these storms as
   they move northeastward. The large buoyancy and steep lapse rates
   will support a conditional threat of very large hail if any elevated
   supercells can become established. Coverage of the severe threat
   this morning is uncertain, making the need for short-term watch
   issuance unclear. A more extensive severe threat is still expected
   across parts of this region later today.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46779395 45379572 45339673 45939755 46239784 46419803
               46959839 47089952 47849989 49019784 49329664 49419487
               49259418 48849326 48439284 46779395 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN