Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1399

   Mesoscale Discussion 1399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

   Areas affected...Central to southern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220803Z - 221000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An MCS with a history of producing wind damage is expected
   to gradually weaken over the next couple of hours, but a
   severe/damaging wind threat will likely persist for the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 2 hours, an initially disorganized band
   of thunderstorms has organized into an MCS with embedded bowing
   segments and a well-defined MCV noted in regional radar imagery.
   This MCS has a history of producing wind damage along with
   occasional severe gusts (a 50-knot gust was recently reported at
   KRME within one of the stronger bowing segments). Despite the
   unexpected well-organized nature of the MCS, it is quickly outpacing
   more appreciable buoyancy with downstream MUCAPE values falling into
   the 250-500 J/kg range across PA and southern NY. Consequently, the
   expectation is for this MCS to gradually weaken over the next few
   hours as it continues to move into a more stable air mass. However,
   strong deep-layer wind shear will help maintain MCS organization and
   the severe wind threat in the short term until weakening begins to
   occur. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated given the
   expected weakening, but convective trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   ..Moore/Mosier.. 06/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42387376 42187394 42027442 41977508 42007554 42027594
               42127616 42297630 42667634 43087631 43327613 43337593
               43287549 43327498 43337464 43207432 42627377 42387376 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN