Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1394

   Mesoscale Discussion 1394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern WI into the Upper Peninsula of
   MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210634Z - 210830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong wind gusts are possible with
   thunderstorm activity into early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed within a warm advection
   regime and on the nose of an 850 mb low-level jet spreading
   northeast with time. This activity is likely elevated, but steep
   midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind profiles are present across
   the region. Isolated large hail will be the main hazard, with
   sporadic hail in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range possible. Trends will
   be monitored for possible increasing storm coverage/intensity,
   though severe thunderstorm watch issuance is uncertain given the
   overall marginal thermodynamic environment with eastward extent
   across the U.P. and northeast WI.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   47189047 47348885 47148819 46628749 45978762 45458799
               45208852 45228917 45608961 46159029 46449075 46839076
               47189047 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN