Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1382

   Mesoscale Discussion 1382
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern New Mexico into eastern
   Colorado...northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201949Z - 202215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts may occur with dry downbursts or
   microbursts. Storms should be isolated and brief, precluding a WW
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Upper-support from a mid-level trough is grazing the
   central High Plains, where a deep and dry boundary layer exists and
   continues to mix. 18Z RAP forecast soundings depict boundary-layer
   mixing up to 500 mb in spots, with the 19Z mesoanalysis showing 9-10
   C/km 0-3km lapse rates already in place. Visible satellite and MRMS
   mosaic radar imagery show attempts at convective initiation and the
   current thinking is that additional storm development is possible by
   afternoon peak heating. Should a more robust updraft and associated
   storm core develop, rapid evaporative cooling may support a dry
   downburst or microburst, accompanied by strong to severe gusts.
   However, since storms may be quite brief and isolated in nature, the
   overall severe threat should be too localized to warrant a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36740606 38480453 39990250 41270058 41380023 41239971
               40889955 39959990 38120123 35730369 34880477 34640528
               34720562 34980614 36740606 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH