Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1375

   Mesoscale Discussion 1375
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...Central Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192329Z - 200130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
   along the dryline. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, but storm
   coverage suggests a watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to very
   steep 0-3km lapse rates along the dryline this afternoon as
   temperatures warmed through the mid and upper 90s. As a result, CINH
   is minimal and low-level convergence appears more than adequate for
   isolated robust convection from northern NE, southwest across
   western KS into southeast CO. Slow-moving supercells may continue
   along this corridor deep into the evening hours as a LLJ is expected
   to strengthen across the central Plains after sunset. However, storm
   coverage may prove too sparse to warrant a severe thunderstorm
   watch.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37150304 39400133 42559959 42639846 39999958 37580152
               37150304 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN