Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1373

   Mesoscale Discussion 1373
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and far southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192230Z - 200030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A bowing line segment will likely pose a severe wind risk
   along the North Carolina/Virginia border region over the next few
   hours. Watch issuance is probable if the band remains south of WW
   442.

   DISCUSSION...A convective cluster has quickly organized into a
   compact bowing line segment across northern NC over the past 60-90
   minutes. TRDU velocity imagery shows a consolidating outflow
   boundary associated with this line as well as severe winds at about
   2-3 kft ARL, and GOES IR imagery shows rapid intensification via
   cooling cloud-top temperatures. This band will likely propagate to
   the east/northeast along a diffuse outflow boundary draped from
   eastern VA into northern NC. Ahead of the outflow, temperatures in
   the upper 80s and low 90s are supporting a regional buoyancy maximum
   (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) that, when coupled with 30-35 knots of
   effective bulk shear, should promote further intensification over
   the next couple of hours. Consequently, the severe wind threat
   should increase downstream along the VA/NC border. It remains
   unclear how far south the outflow will propagate as this
   intensification occurs, but watch issuance is probable if the band
   remains south of WW 442.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35997974 36057954 36297946 36487954 36627936 37037667
               36997640 36867597 36537585 36257576 36137563 35897567
               35787958 35867981 35997974 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN