Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1372

   Mesoscale Discussion 1372
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0425 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

   Valid 192125Z - 192330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms with a history of producing
   severe wind gusts will continue to push east across Maryland,
   Delaware, and New Jersey through 23 UTC, and will likely continue
   producing severe gusts/damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity and velocity imagery shows a
   broken convective band with multiple embedded bowing structures
   moving across the Mid-Atlantic. Surface observations over the past
   hour have reported wind gusts between 55-66 mph, and multiple
   reports of wind damage have also been noted. This convective band is
   moving into the apex of a buoyancy ridge where MLCAPE is approaching
   1500 J/kg (denoted in surface observations by temperatures in the
   upper 80s to lower 90s, which may promote further intensification of
   segments within the line. Regional VWPs downstream of the line
   continue to sample strong (20-30 knot) line-orthogonal low-level
   wind shear, which will also help maintain convective organization as
   the band continues east. Wind gusts between 60-70 mph appear
   probable along with the potential for swaths of wind damage. Latest
   storm track estimates suggest this band will reach the coast between
   the 23-00 UTC time frame, so the threat should persist for at least
   two more hours.

   ..Moore.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38647682 39107648 39537614 39917584 40237559 40547420
               40397395 40087394 39767407 39457427 39197456 38757493
               38487497 38347522 38347561 38367600 38497648 38557671
               38587684 38647682 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN