Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1365

   Mesoscale Discussion 1365
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina and
   western North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191732Z - 191900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Low 70s dewpoints and mid 80s temperatures have yielded
   1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from northeast Georgia to western North
   Carolina. This moderate shear and convergence within a lee trough
   and uncapped environment should result in scattered thunderstorm
   activity this afternoon. Around 30 knots of shear is being sampled
   by the GSP VWP which will be sufficient for some storm organization
   across western South Carolina and western North Carolina. Farther
   south, much weaker shear is present (15 knots per FFC VWP).
   Therefore, despite very strong instability, the severe weather
   threat should remain more isolated.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34268386 35198279 36388164 36628072 36648011 36477919
               35547939 34228112 33558207 33438280 33548368 33798394
               34268386 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN