Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1364

   Mesoscale Discussion 1364
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191722Z - 191915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection will gradually intensify as they move off the
   Blue Ridge this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary hazard,
   though isolated large hail and a brief tornado or two are also
   possible. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows convection gradually deepening
   along the Blue Ridge in advance of an upper-level trough. Given the
   upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and clear skies ahead of this
   activity, the boundary-layer will continue to destabilize through
   the afternoon. 30-35 kts of effective shear will likely mean broken
   line segments as well as a few supercells.

   The primary hazard this afternoon will be damaging winds,
   particularly with any line segments that develop. Isolated large
   hail is possible, but weak winds at upper levels and poor mid-level
   lapse rates (sample by morning soundings across the region) should
   limit that threat. Modest enhancement to the 850 mb winds will
   promote sufficient low-level shear for the threat of a brief tornado
   or two.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473
               37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN