Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1363

   Mesoscale Discussion 1363
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191644Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
   afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering
   cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate
   instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some
   organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50
   knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large
   hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Storm coverage
   may be somewhat isolated early this afternoon as the upper-level
   trough and surface front remain across the eastern Great
   Lakes/southern Ontario. Additional storms may arrive this evening as
   those features move east, but instability will likely be weaker by
   this time, and the severe threat remains questionable by later this
   evening.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...

   LAT...LON   41727697 43137600 45007485 45087370 45077361 45037202
               44287197 42447221 41197276 40967327 40887370 40797446
               40827510 40927587 41117637 41727697 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN