Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1361

   Mesoscale Discussion 1361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Arkansas into western
   Tennessee...far southwestern Kentucky...and far northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190418Z - 190545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail is possible.
   A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters have fluctuated in
   intensity over the past couple of hours, with MRMS MESH data
   suggesting that isolated instances of marginally severe hail may be
   occurring. These storms are developing ahead of an approaching 500
   mb impulse, where residual buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
   coinciding with 35 kts of effective bulk shear (04Z mesoanalysis),
   may support a couple instances of marginally severe hail over the
   next couple of hours. Even so, the severe threat should be isolated
   enough to preclude a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34609103 35759089 36988984 37078927 36888866 36518816
               35738798 35188809 34678873 34458959 34609103 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN