Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1355

   Mesoscale Discussion 1355
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into
   northern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182258Z - 190030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across central parts
   of the Tennessee Valley over the next few hours. Should an
   appreciable severe threat materialize, severe gusts will be the main
   threat, though a couple instances of severe hail and perhaps a
   tornado could also occur. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance may be necessary pending continued favorable convective
   trends.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in both coverage and
   intensity ahead of a broad confluence zone. These storms are
   intensifying amid a moderately to strongly unstable airmass
   (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but with weak vertical wind shear and
   forcing for ascent. As such, it is not clear how robust further
   trends in convective coverage and intensity will be. Should storms
   become considerably more intense, at least scattered strong to
   potentially severe gusts are likely, with a couple instances of hail
   also possible. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out given
   modest low-level hodograph curvature based on 22Z mesoanalysis. As
   such, convective trends are being monitored for the need of a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36668677 37518595 38348516 38548366 38388327 37818320
               37238351 36798390 36638480 36438542 36338622 36378665
               36668677 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN