Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1353

   Mesoscale Discussion 1353
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0503 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Ohio into western
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182203Z - 182330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A short-term damaging gust threat may persist with ongoing
   storms. The severe threat with these particular storms should remain
   isolated at best, with a severe thunderstorm watch issuance being
   unlikely. However, conditions will be monitored for a watch issuance
   later this evening with a strong squall line approaching from the
   west.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular complexes are persisting amid
   2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by rich low-level moisture and
   steep boundary layer lapse rates. These storms have a history of
   producing damaging gusts, and current thinking is that this
   potential will continue over the next few hours, while boundary
   layer lapse rates remain steep. The severe threat with the ongoing
   storms over northeast OH into PA should stay isolated, so a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance is unlikely. However, a mature QLCS with
   a history of several severe gusts is approaching from the west, and
   watch issuance potential with this line will be assessed as it
   approaches eastern OH several hours for now.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41508190 41888066 42197922 42137854 41617829 40677870
               40147920 39937975 40068033 40378090 40858155 41508190 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN