Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1347

   Mesoscale Discussion 1347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...the Lower OH Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181844Z - 182015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An additional watch issuance is expected to the south of
   WWs 432/434 across the Lower Ohio Valley through western Kentucky.
   Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail
   are the likely hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convection has been building across southeast
   IL ahead of a weak cold front in southeast MO. VWP data from PAH has
   begun to become veered in the low-levels, but adequate 0-1 km SRH
   exists for low-level rotation amid a very moist and unstable air
   mass. Convection should continue to increase in a
   southwest/northeast orientation across the Lower OH Valley through
   the rest of the afternoon. This should result in more parallel
   alignment to the deep-layer shear vector. Sporadic damaging winds
   will probably be the overarching threat, but a tornado or two will
   be possible, especially with northward extent in southern IN.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37998828 38408731 38468637 38278589 37648598 37178611
               36868691 36638794 36438923 36728939 37458897 37998828 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN