Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1337

   Mesoscale Discussion 1337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0544 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle into
   far southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 172244Z - 180045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts will likely accompany any high-based
   thunderstorms that can initiate. Storm development/coverage is
   uncertain, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated
   high-based cumulus developing along a dryline extending across the
   TX South Plains. Radar data from LBB also shows continued attempts
   at convective initiation within the zone of low-level ascent. If a
   couple storms can develop within this corridor, a deeply mixed
   boundary layer (characterized by an inverted-V sounding) and
   sufficient instability would promote severe downbursts (and possibly
   some severe hail) with any sustained high-based storms. Storm
   development/sustenance and overall coverage is somewhat uncertain,
   though trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35110053 35130007 35009966 34619949 34239955 33320133
               33350190 33840214 34130202 35110053 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN