Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1336

   Mesoscale Discussion 1336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

   Valid 172216Z - 172345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds may accompany convection as it spreads
   southeast this evening. It's not entirely clear whether a new WW
   will be warranted downstream across eastern Colorado into western
   Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
   trough ejecting east-southeast across eastern WY/northeast CO.
   Scattered strong/severe convection has developed ahead of this
   feature, especially across the central High Plains where an MCS is
   maturing. Latest radar imagery suggests a gradually expanding precip
   shield over northeast CO into southwest NE. The leading edge of this
   activity is likely generating near-severe wind gusts, but the
   downstream air mass has not fully recovered from earlier convective
   overturning. Large-scale support favors this MCS propagating across
   the remainder of northeast CO toward northwest KS and there is some
   concern the organized nature of this cluster will continue to
   produce locally severe winds. It's not clear whether a new severe
   thunderstorm watch will be issued, but it under consideration.

   ..Darrow.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40690204 40170074 37550146 37410287 38260362 39630338
               40690204 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN