Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1332

   Mesoscale Discussion 1332
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...southern KS...northern OK...and the northeast TX
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 171827Z - 172030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected by late afternoon
   as supercells likely develop and intensify along/ahead of remnant
   outflow boundaries and a southeast-moving cold front. A watch
   issuance is expected, most likely tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent arc of elevated convection has been
   ongoing throughout the day in the wake of an overnight MCS. This
   west/east-oriented broken band should begin to accelerate southeast
   and may take on increasingly surface-based character heading into
   late afternoon, as boundary layer recovery has been prominent across
   southern KS. A few additional storms may develop south of this
   activity into northern OK and the northeast TX Panhandle as MLCIN
   weakens over the next few hours. The ICT VWP depicts a favorable
   supercell wind profile near the large-scale outflow boundary. Any
   sustained storms ahead of the broken convective band will pose a
   risk for tornadoes and very large hail. Otherwise, a mix of isolated
   to scattered severe gusts and hail is anticipated as this round of
   convection shifts east-southeast into early evening.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36369868 35890004 35940079 36520098 37040000 37949896
               38079845 38019755 37839681 37679582 37509546 37149526
               36879525 36569560 36429599 36479653 36369868 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN