Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1331

   Mesoscale Discussion 1331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...central to northeast AL...northwest GA...southeast
   TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171756Z - 171930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Weakly organized multicell clustering may yield sporadic
   strong gusts and localized wind damage through late afternoon. A
   watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...An east-northeastward moving MCV over western TN has
   aided in scattered to widespread convection across the Deep South
   towards the central Gulf Coast. A confined belt of moderate 700-500
   mb southwesterlies is present across northern AL per the HTX VWP
   data, with speeds progressively weaker with southern extent. Greater
   clustering has largely occurred in the progressively weak shear
   environment from central AL southward. It is plausible that a
   loosely organized cluster might emerge to the east-northeast from
   central AL along the southern extent of the flow enhancement. With
   largely mid 80s surface temperatures downstream, sporadic strong
   gusts from 45-55 mph should be the common hazard.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34588686 35088662 35318606 35748507 35848423 35708387
               35318379 34818424 34368456 33858489 33318551 32888606
               32728639 32698698 32828732 33778682 34588686 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH