Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1329

   Mesoscale Discussion 1329
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...parts of east central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

   Valid 171252Z - 171445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The stronger lingering storms will continue to spread
   south-southeastward toward the McAlester vicinity through 9-10 AM
   CDT, but  intensities are expected to weaken further with
   diminishing potential for strong to severe surface gusts.  A new
   severe weather watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...The organized southeastward propagating convective
   system has undergone substantive weakening over the past few hours,
   with stronger convection shrinking in areal extent and surface gusts
   diminishing in peak intensity.  A notable (2-4+ mb 2-hourly surface
   pressure rises evident in 12Z surface observations) small cold pool
   is providing support for this convection as it propagates southeast
   of the Stillwater OK vicinity.  Based on its 30-35 kt forward
   propagation, it could approach the McAlester vicinity by 15Z. 
   However, based on current trends, including weakening forcing for
   ascent in the presence of considerable mid-level inhibition, it
   seems probable that convection will continue to wane, with further
   weakening of the surface cold pool and diminishing surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36249634 35999568 34869559 35009632 35839658 36249634 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN