Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
4 min read
2 months ago
Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central South Dakota
Far Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 650 PM
until 100 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An organized wind-producing squall line is forecast to
organize and move east across a large portion of the Watch area this
evening into the overnight. A few supercells with an attendant risk
for large hail are possible this evening over southern South Dakota.
As the squall line develops and moves east within a very favorable
lapse rate environment, expecting severe gusts (60-85 mph) to
accompany the stronger surges of outflow associated with the
thunderstorm complex.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west northwest
of Rapid City SD to 30 miles east northeast of Pierre SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419...WW 420...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Smith
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central South Dakota
Far Northeast Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 650 PM
until 100 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An organized wind-producing squall line is forecast to
organize and move east across a large portion of the Watch area this
evening into the overnight. A few supercells with an attendant risk
for large hail are possible this evening over southern South Dakota.
As the squall line develops and moves east within a very favorable
lapse rate environment, expecting severe gusts (60-85 mph) to
accompany the stronger surges of outflow associated with the
thunderstorm complex.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west northwest
of Rapid City SD to 30 miles east northeast of Pierre SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419...WW 420...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 421 SEVERE TSTM SD WY 160050Z - 160700Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
75WNW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/ - 30ENE PIR/PIERRE SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM N/S /68WNW RAP - 21ENE PIR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..75 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 45830446 45929972 43179972 43080446
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 421 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 421
VALID 160245Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CDR
TO 45 SSW 2WX TO 55 ESE 4BQ.
..MARSH..06/16/25
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC007-019-021-031-033-041-047-055-063-065-071-075-081-085-093-
095-102-103-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-160340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CAMPBELL
CORSON CUSTER DEWEY
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
HUGHES JACKSON JONES
LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.