Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1316

   Mesoscale Discussion 1316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0522 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

   Valid 162222Z - 162315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

   SUMMARY...A southward extension of Tornado Watch 423 into
   south-central Minnesota may be warranted.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the
   southward-extending cold front in south-central MN -- south of
   Tornado Watch 423. A warm/moist air mass is in place ahead of these
   evolving storms, with around 40 kt of effective shear (oriented
   perpendicular to the front) and modest low-level hodograph curvature
   (per VWP and mesoanalysis data). This should support an uptick in
   convective intensity, with a couple discrete supercells possible.
   Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado will be possible with this
   activity. Therefore, a local southward extension of Tornado Watch
   423 may be warranted.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44439479 44879462 44969426 44819378 44419363 43789380
               43619410 43659472 44129480 44439479 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN