Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1311

   Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161825Z - 162030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should intensify ahead of an eastward-moving
   surface cyclone, starting in west-central Minnesota. A few
   supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
   tornadoes are possible. A watch will likely be needed with
   uncertainty on southern extent of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has increased near the
   southeast ND/west-central MN border area in vicinity of a surface
   cyclone. A corridor of greater insolation persists ahead of this low
   into the Brainerd Lakes area, northwest of regenerative elevated
   convection across east-central MN to northeast IA. This should yield
   further low-level destabilization and increasing moderate buoyancy
   into late afternoon. While 12Z CAMs largely underplayed the morning
   elevated convection, the RRFS has consistently signaled the
   surface-based convection may remain largely confined to near the
   surface low/warm front across central MN. Low-level shear is modest,
   but a belt of stronger 700-mb winds attendant to the shortwave
   impulse should support a few supercells in an emerging cluster that
   spreads east into early evening.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46899636 47209562 47399446 47159349 46869297 46519268
               46079291 45669405 45579426 45459485 45389538 45389596
               45819613 46349643 46899636 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN