Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1304

   Mesoscale Discussion 1304
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152049Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage with
   potential for large hail and damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase, mainly
   along and near the higher terrain/upslope regions, across the Front
   Range into portions of eastern Wyoming. The downstream air mass
   remains under the influence of strong MLCIN, albeit gradually
   weakening along the western fringe. This weakening trend is set to
   continue as forcing for ascent increases with a shortwave passage
   this afternoon/evening. 

   Thunderstorms are likely to form and quickly cluster this evening.
   Once uncapped, the downstream air mass is moderately to very
   unstable (with MLCAPE around 2000-3500 J/kg). Initially, supercells
   capable of large hail and damaging wind will be the main threat
   before a transition to linear bowing segments and focus for
   potential damaging wind into portions of Nebraska. In the short
   term, In addition, deepening cumulus is observed further east across
   Cherry County in Nebraska. A supercell or two could emerge within
   this region ahead of the main forcing. A watch will likely be needed
   to cover these potential threats in the coming hours.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43420455 43500403 43460325 43420290 43120193 42770117
               42200055 41260021 40430012 39770043 39090113 38940173
               39220450 40720497 42530501 43420455 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN