Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1303

   Mesoscale Discussion 1303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far
   West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152044Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with storms
   that move off the terrain into southeast Colorado and eastern New
   Mexico. A watch is not expected in the short term, but trends will
   be monitored into the evening where a more organized wind threat
   could evolve farther east.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has developed from the Sangre de Cristo into
   the southern Rockies this afternoon as moderately moist (mid 50s F
   dewpoints) upslope flow has persisted over the last few hours. To
   the east, a modifying outflow boundary from an earlier MCS in the
   southern Plains has entered eastern New Mexico and should eventually
   reach the terrain. While this outflow is slightly cooler, low 60s F
   dewpoints have promoted 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE with weaker
   inhibition. The expectation is for storms to eventually move off the
   terrain as MLCIN is eroded in the next hour or two. Modestly
   enhanced northwesterlies aloft on the western flank of the MCV atop
   southeasterly surface winds supports 35-45 kts of effective shear
   (stronger in the north and weaker south). Steep mid-level lapse
   rates and strong shear should allow initial supercells to produce
   large hail (up to 2.5 inches) as well as severe winds.

   Some model guidance has suggested clustering is possible in
   northeast New Mexico where stronger shear and greater buoyancy will
   overlap. With only a weak low-level jet response in the Texas
   Panhandle/South Plains this evening, it is not clear how far east
   such a cluster/small MCS could propagate. A greater wind threat
   would exist if this occurs. Overall, storm coverage should remain
   isolated at least into early evening and a watch is not currently
   expected. Trends in convective evolution will need to be monitored
   into this evening, however.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   37080518 37160518 37820464 37840304 37220263 33450295
               32800294 32160368 32130488 32780497 35000510 37080518 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN