Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1302

   Mesoscale Discussion 1302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 151913Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely to increase over the next
   couple of hours with initial supercells capable large to very large
   hail and damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...Convective development has begun across the high
   terrain in central Montana. This should increased in coverage as a
   shortwave rotates out of Idaho into Montana this afternoon/evening
   and forcing for ascent increases.

   Initially, the moderately unstable and strongly sheared air mass
   should support supercells. Given the steep lapse rates and linear
   elongated hodographs, these will be capable of large to very large
   hail (2-3+ in). Where east to southeasterly flow resides in
   east-central/eastern Montana leading to sufficient low level SRH, a
   tornado would be possible. 

   Evolution through the afternoon should favor clustering and attempts
   at upscale growth, to which the primary hazard will likely become
   strong to significant damaging wind (some 60-75+ mph). A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch will be needed to cover this threat within the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46501042 47031016 47330956 47470876 47520746 47530623
               47530567 47460483 47330446 46840413 46250408 45140418
               45020449 45000542 45010706 45090802 45140865 45310947
               45751023 45971033 46501042 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN