Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1301

   Mesoscale Discussion 1301
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151858Z - 152100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to marginally severe gusts are possible this
   afternoon. A few damaging downbursts are possible as outflow
   boundaries collide.

   DISCUSSION...As the outflow from an earlier MCS continues into a
   strongly buoyant airmass in central Texas, a few strong to
   near-severe gusts have been measures from San Saba to Killeen and
   Waco (all 40-49 kts). Convection from the Gulf breeze front has also
   been propagating northward this afternoon. Given the low-level lapse
   rates and a signature for a localized 50+ kt winds on KGRK velocity
   data, additional strong to marginally severe gusts may still occur.
   There also will be some potential for strong to near-severe
   downburst winds as the remnant MCS outflow collides with outflow
   from Gulf breeze convection within the next couple hours.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30279888 30629920 31209955 31419927 31429855 31489755
               32129652 32149596 31699545 31159567 30529654 30179796
               30139852 30279888 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH