Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1300

   Mesoscale Discussion 1300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest into Southeast Virginia...far northern
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151723Z - 151930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms may produce wind
   damage and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado threat will be
   maximized near a lifting warm front. A watch is not currently
   expected this afternoon, though trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level disturbance
   moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Signs of synoptic ascent are also
   evident on visible satellite. A storm in Franklin County, VA,
   recently has developed and has shown some signs of at least weak
   low-level rotation on KFCX velocity data. This storm is near a warm
   front where low-level hodographs will be modestly enlarged with the
   more easterly surface winds. With the approaching ascent, additional
   storms are possible this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds are
   likely the primary threat, though a tornado or two could also occur
   with storms that favorably interact with the warm frontal zone.
   Given weak mid-level lapse rates, diffuse synoptic lift, and
   marginal deep-layer and low-level shear, storm coverage and
   intensity will not likely warrant a watch this afternoon. However,
   convective trends near the warm front will continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36327988 36648020 36808030 37238005 37377975 37857842
               37557689 37037659 36647684 36317730 36327844 36307979
               36327988 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH