Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1296

   Mesoscale Discussion 1296
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...parts of north central/central OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

   Valid 150626Z - 150830Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely to continue through the
   remainder of the night, with potential to organize and begin to
   produce strong to severe wind gusts, particularly to the north of
   the Greater Oklahoma City area during the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convection likely remains rooted within forcing for
   ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near
   the nose of a modest southwesterly nocturnal low-level jet.  This is
   occurring above a boundary-layer air mass substantially impacted by
   prior convection, with little substantive surface cold pool
   strengthening evident with ongoing activity.

   Strongest continuing thunderstorm development through the next
   several hours appears likely to become increasingly focused along
   the western flank of the composite outflow, roughly east of Alva
   into areas north of Oklahoma City OK, where elevated (southwesterly)
   updraft inflow will remain most unstable.  This may remain
   characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Although this is
   embedded within westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10 kt,
   veering profiles from southwesterly to northwesterly in
   lower/mid-levels may continue to support evolving supercell
   structures.  

   It still appears possible that convection currently intensifying
   between Enid and Chandler could undergo substantive further upscale
   growth, and perhaps become accompanied by a more prominent southward
   propagating surface cold pool with increasing potential to produce 
   strong to severe wind gusts by 08-10Z.

   ..Kerr.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36769845 36449745 35759626 35279650 35159696 35159742
               35839793 36299868 36769845 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN