Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1279

   Mesoscale Discussion 1279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0823 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central/southeast MT into far
   northern WY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

   Valid 140123Z - 140300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado
   will continue east-southeastward this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small but intense supercell cluster has evolved east
   of Billings, where moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear
   remain very supportive of organized convection. This cluster appears
   capable of producing a localized swath of severe gusts (potentially
   near/above 75 mph) as it moves east-southeastward this evening,
   along with large to very large hail (possibly wind-driven). A
   tornado also cannot be ruled out, given the presence of an embedded
   supercell structure and modestly favorable downstream low-level
   moisture and effective SRH. 

   Farther southwest, a supercell has recently intensified along the
   trailing outflow south of Billings, with additional storm
   development possible closer to the MT/WY border with time. These
   cells developing near or just behind the trailing outflow could also
   pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening.

   ..Dean.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45530838 45810791 46530719 46530569 45800530 45390530
               44760566 44770749 44890844 44980920 45250931 45530838 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN