Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1277

   Mesoscale Discussion 1277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico...the western Texas
   Panhandle...and Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132337Z - 140030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of multicell storms may produce severe gusts
   across parts of eastern New Mexico, the western Texas Panhandle, and
   Texas South Plains this evening. A watch may be needed to cover this
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing over eastern New Mexico.
   These storms are in an environment characterized by large boundary
   layer dewpoint depressions and large DCAPE (1800+ J/kg). Relatively
   weak deep layer shear (15-25 kts effective bulk shear) explains the
   current clusters of multicells storm mode, and this is expected to
   be maintained through the evening. Storms are already producing
   strong cold pools given the observations of fine lines on the KFDX
   radar. This leads to the primary threat from these storms being
   severe gusts. Some hail is also possible given that all the buoyancy
   is above the freezing level, though weak deep-layer shear may limit
   large hail production. Convective intensity should be maintained
   into the evening before gradually waning as storms move to the
   southeast into the early overnight period.

   ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35250440 36390357 36500271 36020171 35090103 33680112
               32540162 32080273 32450396 33370445 33990451 35250440 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN