Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1272

   Mesoscale Discussion 1272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...Southwestern and central Alabama...and southeastern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131824Z - 132030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts could accompany clusters of
   thunderstorms and brief line segments through this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across portions of
   southwestern and central AL this afternoon. This convection is in an
   environment characterized by moderate instability and overall
   relatively weak deep layer effective shear ahead of a shortwave
   trough progressing eastward across LA. Some strengthening mid-level
   flow through late this afternoon should support increasing
   opportunities for thunderstorm organization and the potential for
   bowing line segments. In addition, (BMX) PWATs near the 90th
   percentile/precipitation loading may also aid in localized damaging
   wind potential, especially with any of the more robust, merging
   clusters. A severe weather watch is not anticipated at this time,
   though, given the localized nature of the threat and a lack of
   significant deep layer effective shear expected through most of the
   afternoon.

   ..Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30528898 30568907 30658909 30868904 31098918 31398905
               31688902 31878904 32118899 32528888 33028854 33328827
               33718764 33688724 33478681 33318655 32878664 32648686
               32248724 31808766 31398794 31018840 30708874 30488895
               30528898 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH