Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1270

   Mesoscale Discussion 1270
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...Central Tennessee and Kentucky...northeastern
   Mississippi...and northwestern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131738Z - 131945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase across the
   TN Valley through this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A few clusters of thunderstorms, and new rapid
   development via visible satellite imagery, are being observed from
   far northeastern MS into middle TN and central KY. This convection
   is blooming in a low to moderately unstable air mass, with surface
   dewpoints/temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s under a relatively
   cooler pocket of air aloft, east of a mid-level cyclone centered
   near the MO/AR border. Based on the latest VAD profiles around the
   region, mid-level southwesterly flow continues to slowly increase.
   Some organization into line segments will be possible through this
   afternoon given ~35 kt of effective deep layer shear, with
   precipitation loading aiding in a threat of locally damaging wind
   gusts. However, a lack of persistent, stronger mid-level flow later
   today should limit the overall severe weather threat and a weather
   watch is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Barnes/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34908861 35578828 36098735 38558529 38208444 36598512
               35598591 34618668 33858747 33598794 33438871 33378933
               33498963 33798974 34218958 34908861